Champions League 2023 quarter-finals match day 1 round-up. The Stats Ball we will be taking you a closer look at the xG (expected goals) scoreline, Infogol fairness rating, and notable data points. From expected goals and match reviews. To the individual performances of winners and losers between Real Madrid vs Chelsea and AC Milan vs Napoli.
Before we dig in, let's clear what is Infogol Fairness Ratings first.
What is Infogol Fairness Ratings?
Infogol Fairness Rating is a statistical tool used in football to evaluate the fairness of a particular match. It is based on the expected goals (xG) metric, which is a statistical method of measuring the quality of scoring chances in a game.
The Infogol Fairness Rating takes into account the xG of both teams and compares it to the final scoreline. If the final scoreline is close to what would be expected based on the xG, then the match is considered fair. However, if the final scoreline is significantly different from what would be expected based on the xG, then the match is considered unfair.
The Infogol Fairness Rating is expressed as a percentage, with 100% indicating a completely fair match and lower percentages indicating increasingly unfair matches. This tool can be used by fans, journalists, and analysts to evaluate the quality of a match and to identify instances where a team may have been particularly lucky or unlucky in the final scoreline.
Champion League 2023: Quarter Finals Analysis
Now we we are going to identify how each match performances was and how did each team did statistical with some data points.
Real Madrid vs Chelsea: King of Europe Dominated
Real Madrid faced off against Chelsea in the first leg, and they dominated the game, heading back to Stamford Bridge with a two-goal lead. Karim Benzema continued his impressive run, scoring his seventh goal in four matches to give Los Blancos the lead in the first half. Chelsea's troubles continued in the second half when Ben Chilwell was sent off, paving the way for substitute Marco Asensio to score and double Madrid's lead.
Despite Chelsea's best efforts, their attack lacked the necessary cutting edge, as evidenced by their meager xGF (expected goals for) of 1.09 - the second-lowest in the entire Champions League season. This follows a similarly disappointing display against Wolves last weekend, with Frank Lampard struggling to create opportunities for his side.
While some pundits may still hold out hope for Chelsea to turn the tie around, the data paints a bleak picture. With just a 9% chance of progressing, it's difficult to disagree with the notion that the Blues are up against it.
AC Milan vs Napoli: Tale of Missed Chances
In the first leg of their tie, Napoli was left to rue missed opportunities, both early on (0.49 xG) and late (0.41), as they fell to a 1-0 defeat against AC Milan.
The game was evenly matched, and a draw would have been a fairer reflection of the chances created. However, the hosts managed to take the lead through Ismael Bennacer. Napoli was without the services of Victor Osimhen, a significant loss for the team, and will now miss André-Frank Zambo Anguissa in the second leg after he was sent off in the second half.
Milan will travel to Naples with confidence, having not only beaten the Serie A champions-elect in the first leg but also thrashing them 4-0 at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium just a few weeks ago. With their strong form against Napoli and a crucial away goal, Milan will feel they have the upper hand heading into the second leg. Napoli will need to make every chance count if they hope to overturn the deficit and progress to the next round.
Manchester City Take Control over Munich
Manchester City took a significant step towards the Champions League semi-finals with a resounding 3-0 home win over Tuchel Bayern Munich in the first leg. The match was characterized by City's dominance, and their attacking prowess was on full display.
City's first goal came from Rodri's remarkable curling effort from distance, which gave the hosts a first-half lead. The second goal came after Dayot Upamecano's mistake allowed Bernardo Silva to finish, followed by the prolific Erling Haaland getting involved in the scoring shortly afterwards.
Ruben Dias (0.45 xG) and Ilkay Gundogan (0.37 xG) had City's other big chances, which they failed to convert. The German champions did see some efforts, with Matthijs de Ligt and Kingsley Coman failing to convert from close range. Benjamin Pavard's off-balance header was deemed their best opportunity of the game (0.38 xG).
Ederson comfortably dealt with Leroy Sane's repeated efforts from distance. At the other end, it was a defensive line full of panic in possession. Goalkeeper Yann Sommer was nearly caught with the ball at his feet on multiple occasions, while the relentless City pressing led to repeated turnovers.
The victory means that Pep Guardiola's men are all-but-through to the final four, with Bayern facing a mountain to climb when the two meet in Munich. The xG data of the match was in favor of City with 2.38 xG as compared to Bayern Munich's 0.83 xG, indicating their dominance in the match.
Inter Milan vs Benfica: Expected Outcome?
Inter Milan took a big step towards the semi-finals of the Champion Leagues with a 2-0 win over Benfica in the first leg of their quarter-final tie. Despite a slow start to the game, the second half saw a flurry of activity from both sides.
Inter opened the scoring through Nicola Barella, who converted Denzel Dumfries' cross to give the Italian side the lead. The goal fell into the definition of a big chance and was one of the few notable chances created in the first half.
The second half was a different story, with both sides creating more opportunities. Romelu Lukaku's successful penalty put Inter 2-0 up and in a commanding position. Lukaku's penalty was part of Inter's overall xG tally, which was boosted by other notable chances from Dumfries and Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
Despite Benfica's efforts, they were unable to convert their significant chances. Rafa Silva had the best opportunity with an xG of 0.68, while Álex Grimaldo had two chances with xG values of 0.44 and 0.29 respectively. Young striker Gonçalo Ramos also had a late chance, but like his teammates, he failed to convert.
After a dramatic Wednesday of Champions League quarterfinal action, it's clear that this stage of the competition is not for the faint-hearted. Real Madrid and AC Milan emerged as the winners in their respective matches against Chelsea and Napoli, but not without some controversy. Let's take a closer look at two winners and two losers from yesterday's fixtures.
Champion League 2023: Quarter Finals Wednesday
We are going to pick and choose winners and losers of Wednesday Champion League 2023 match. Between Real Madrid vs Chelsea and of course AC Milan vs Napoli. Real Madrid and Chelsea match are not like last year quarter-finals. Where Chelsea seems to be going to into the semi-finals. As this time Real Madrid took control for the match.
First up, the winner of the day is Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema. The Frenchman scored the opening goal in Real Madrid's 2-0 win over Chelsea, continuing his impressive form in the competition. Benzema now shares the top spot for most goals scored among players from Europe's top five leagues since the World Cup break with Erling Haaland.
On the other hand, AC Milan inconsistent Serie A display is not showing up in the Champion Leagues. With Napoli not taking their chances.
- Ismaël Bennacer: AC Milan drew first blood against Napoli, with Bennacer scoring his first Champions League goal in style.
- Karim Benzema: The Real Madrid icon opened the scoring against Chelsea and continues to prove himself as one of the top UCL scorers.
Let's explore a quick snippet of losers from match day 1 Champion League 2023 quarterfinals.
- Marc Cucurella and Ben Chilwell: The Chelsea defenders had a horrible sequence early in the second half, leading to a straight red card for Chilwell and giving Real Madrid a two-goal aggregate lead.
- André-Frank Zambo Anguissa: The Napoli midfielder lost his composure and received two yellow cards in just four minutes, resulting in him missing the second leg against AC Milan.
The Champions League quarterfinal first legs saw some impressive performances and costly mistakes. Real Madrid and AC Milan secured narrow victories over Chelsea and Napoli, respectively. The second legs promise to be thrilling, with Chelsea and Napoli needing to overcome their deficits to advance to the semifinals. As for the winners and losers, Benzema and Bennacer showcased their skills, while Chilwell and Zambo Anguissa will be remembered for their costly mistakes.
xG, or expected goals, is a statistical measure of the quality of a scoring opportunity in a football match. It is calculated using a complex algorithm that takes into account a number of variables, such as the location of the shot, the type of shot, the position of the goalkeeper and defenders, and more. For example, a penalty kick may have an xG value of 0.75, while a shot from outside the penalty area may have an xG value of 0.05.
Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) is a metric that takes the expected goals (xG) metric one step further by only considering shots that are on target. This means that xGOT only takes into account shots that are aimed at the goal and have a chance of actually resulting in a goal. For example, a team may have a high xG value for a match, indicating that they created a number of high-quality scoring chances.